Odds on Harry Brook, the sure bet who is rolling the dice

It's been a curious three Tests for Harry Brook. At Headingley, he made 99 and a duck, but it could so easily have been a pair. On 0 in the first innings, he was bounced out by Jasprit Bumrah in the last over of the day, only to be reprieved by a no-ball. He was dropped later too, and still fell one short of a hundred at home. In the second innings, he lasted exactly one delivery.

Then came Birmingham: a statement hundred in a 303-run stand with Jamie Smith, dragging England from 84 for 5, even as hand cramps kicked in. It was a reminder of why he's seen as the crown jewel of England's next-gen batting. It briefly lifted him to No.1 in the ICC rankings. But at Lord's, the volatility returned. Twice his stumps were rattled, the second time, just before Lunch on Day 4, as he walked across to sweep Akash Deep and missed a half-volley. Kumar Sangakkara, on commentary, offered a ruthless verdict: "That's not Bazball. That's arrogance."

Three Tests. A 158, a 99, thrice bowled and thrice out to nip-backers. It would seem like England's brightest prospect has had a bit of a lottery series so far: highs, lows, and a fair bit of luck.

It's funny, because Brook has never really been a product of chance. If anything, there were always people eager to take a chance on him: teachers, coaches, mentors. The odds were seen early and taken seriously.

When Brook was 14, Daniel Speight, his cricket coach at Sedbergh School and still part of his inner circle today, was so convinced of his future that he told the school's hockey coach, Mark Shopland, that the boy would one day play for England. Shopland walked into a bookmaker's and placed a 100 pound bet at 100-to-1 odds. When Brook got his England cap, that ticket returned 10,000 pounds. "Mark still owes me a bottle of red wine by the way," Speight chuckles as he discusses his brightest ward in a chat with Cricbuzz.

It was never blind faith, just early recognition of a special talent. Brook earned a bursary on Speight's recommendation to continue his schooling because of his cricketing potential. He rose through the England age groups. And once in the senior side, he scored four hundreds and three fifties in his first six Tests. The elegance, the power, the tempo, it was all there.

So too, now, is the scrutiny.

Because even when the runs have come - he's England's second-highest run-getter in the series - Brook hasn't quite looked like the same batter who has been near-flawless in his rapid rise. There's been more premeditation, more gesture, less flow. In Leeds, he danced down the track to Bumrah and lifted him over extra cover, possibly the shot of the series so far, but one that felt jarringly aggressive for the stage of the innings. At Lord's, he played a pair of scoops against Akash Deep, then premeditated a sweep despite Shubman Gill placing a very fine fine leg, and was bowled. It was curious because just before his dismissal, he flicked a near-identical delivery from Nitish Reddy through mid-wicket for four.

And it's here that one of Speight's favourite anecdotes lands rather interestingly. "What always made me smile about Harry... when he walks out to bat, if you watched a highlight reel of him and jumbled it up, it wouldn't make a difference. Ball 80 or ball one, he doesn't play any differently, really. If the first ball's there to drive, he'll drive it.

"He didn't hit the ball in the air, he didn't get out. He didn't play any ball other than how it was meant to be played. So if he needed to play a forward defence, he played a forward defence. A lot of players, a lot of kids especially, bat for 10 minutes, look good in the nets, and then get bored, they start trying funky things, stop concentrating. Harry just batted for an hour, same ball-by-ball concentration, and would do the same again the next day."

That unwavering clarity has long defined Brook. Perhaps some of the premeditation now is a byproduct of the McCullum-Stokes era, an impulse to keep throwing punches and counter-attack. But even for someone wired to attack, this series has had moments where intent has blurred into strange impulse. India's bowling to him has been well researched. Having seen him setup on off-stump and moving further outside with a trigger, they've targetted his off-stump with nip-backers. Some technical gaps may have surfaced, and perhaps, they too have nudged him toward premeditation.

It's not the first time Brook has had to walk that line. After a strong Under-19 World Cup in 2018, he hit a rough patch in 2019. He was dropped from Yorkshire's first team for a game at New Road, his setup and alignment all over the place, his decision-making faltering. "With Harry's mentality, where if he knew everything, he was set up really well, he was in a good position at the start, well-aligned, well-balanced, he'd make good decisions. But as soon as that went wrong and continued to go wrong, then he'd make poor decisions," Speight says.

Brook eventually ironed things out, technically, then mentally, and climbed back, stronger for the stumble. A bus ride with Yorkshire and England legend Joe Root "convinced him that he had to change and needed to develop". It's a familiar arc for young batters, especially those expected to lead from the front. But again it is also unfair to expect people to remain the same over time. Players change as they grow. Personalities evolve, even those shaped by obsession.

Brook, Speight says, was once the quietest boy in school. "He barely spoke. Just kept to himself, only bothered about cricket. He had no sense of humour about anything. Everything was serious, straight-faced, tunnel vision." And yet at Lord's, on the final day of a tense finish, he spent nearly every over chirping away at India's young allrounder Nitish Reddy, reminding him, ball after ball, that his IPL season with Sunrisers Hyderabad was over. It was light, cheeky, and constant. A version of Brook that might have surprised his old teachers.

There's a confidence now, bordering on mischief. He's not just fitting into the England setup; he's leaning into it. And like many in this team, he's happy to ride the rough with the smooth and then come back swinging. That shift, from the boy who barely spoke to the batter who now chirps with shots and sledges, may be the clearest sign of evolution.

And England are happy with that. As for Brook, two Tests still remain. And if this has been his lottery series, it won't be a surprise if he cashes in just when the pot's at its biggest.